Odds of Winning the Division and Securing the #1 Seed in the NFC

Gregory Shamus. Getty Images. 

“There’s no place you’d rather be.” 

Nothing captures the Lions’ playoff expectations than words from the head coach himself. 

The Detroit Lions are in prime position to capture the number one seed in the NFC, along with a second consecutive division title, both franchise firsts. What a time to be a fan! 

However, the road ahead is not an easy one. Between a hungry Buffalo team, a game in the Windy City, an NFC title rematch in Santa Clara, and a regular season finale versus the Vikings, these next few weeks could make or break the Lions’ hopes of being at the top of the mountain.  

How do they achieve such historical glory you may ask? The answer is simple.  

Win three games, you’re the number one seed and kings of the North.  

It does not matter which three games they win. If the Lions can pull out some victories against any three opponents, they are a lock for the number one seed and a second straight division title. If they win all four, then even better!  

What if they don’t win three games?  

Finishing with a 2-2 record in this final stretch is not ideal for capturing that number one seed. Going 14-3 puts their one seed hopes as high as 76% and as low as 41% depending on who they defeat. The best outcome in this scenario would be to defeat the Niners and Vikings, while the worst is losing to the Bears and Vikings.  

Going 1-3 in the next four is a longshot for the one seed, but not hopeless for the division. The Lions’ hope for a one seed is a high of 26% and a low of 5% if this happens. Not great! As for division hopes, they have an 82% chance if they beat Minnesota, but would need them to lose along the way. If they fail to do so, they have a measly 41% chance at a consecutive NFC North title.  

The two key matchups in this final stretch are going to be the Niners and the Vikings. Sprinkle in a win against the Bills or the Eberflus-less Bears and all roads will lead to Detroit come January.  

As long as they win three games, they’re the #1 seed and NFC North champions. Beat Minnesota and one other team and they secure the division title for the second straight season.