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Big Ten Tournament Champion Michigan (27-9) has already made a fool of the NCAA Tournament selection committee by reaching the Sweet Sixteen. Assigned a 5-seed, Michigan has defeated Big West Conference regular season and tournament champion UC San Diego and 4-seed Texas A&M. Next up is a date with 1-seed Auburn (30-5) and their Naismith National Player of the Year Award finalist Johni Broome. The game will take place in Atlanta, Friday, March 28, 9:39 p.m., airing on CBS.

Michigan can rally around being completely counted out. After beating Texas A&M to reach the Sweet Sixteen, the Wolverines opened as 7.5-point underdogs to the Tigers. The line has increased. Michigan is now 9.5-point underdogs on DraftKings. A Google search gives Michigan only a 21 percent chance to beat Auburn. 

It is a fair argument that Michigan’s front court will have a tall task trying to contain the 6’10” and 240 lb. Broome. He averages 18.4 points, 10.7 rebounds and 3.0 assists per game this season for good reason, leading Auburn in all three categories. Vlad Goldin is 7’1” and 250 lbs., but he will need help from Danny Wolf, at 7’0” and 250 lbs., to guard the basket. Michigan might be best served to watch Auburn’s second round game against Creighton to see how the Bluejays held Broome to just eight points. Auburn still scored 82 points that game, just shy of their 83.8 points per game average, but scoring was largely concentrated to three players. 

Michigan averaged 78.3 points per game this season, so trying to dominate on offense might not work. Auburn gave up an average of 69.4 points per game this season. 

Michigan will need to play big and play its best defense of the season. The Wolverines will need to contain Auburn’s six capable scorers, who average 18.4, 12.5, 11.7, 11.5, 10.8 and 9.3 points per game. Michigan has its work cut out for them, but shutting down the paint is a good place to start. The Tigers shoot 36.6 percent from three. That’s a whole lot better than the team’s 48.1 percent shooting overall. 

Auburn’s defense is special, but Michigan has the talent to keep pace if it can force a bad shooting day by the Tigers. The Wolverines’ top six scorers combine for 67.1 points per game, on average (16.8, 13.0, 11.5, 9.9, 9.4, and 6.5). Auburn’s 74.2 points per game by its top six scorers is still higher, but shutting down the paint should bring down their scoring considerably. 

Vegas expects a defensive game to unfold. DraftKings sees both teams combining for 153.5 points in this game, which would be less than the 162.1 points the teams combine for in per game scoring. 

A defensive game favors Michigan. A track meet by the teams would not play out well for the Wolverines. 

I expect Dusty May will develop a game plan to maximize Michigan’s talent and win the game. 

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