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The Big Ten Tournament opens today with four games, but betting favorite, top seed and regular season conference champion Michigan State won’t see its first action until Friday, March 14. In fact, both teams from Michigan have a double-bye, with Michigan also opening its action on Friday. 

Michigan State, 17-3 in the B1G, is +250 to win the tournament. The Spartans have won seven straight. They have the eighth best scoring offense, but second best point differential, 11.4 points per game, thanks to their stifling defense. Defense and running their opponents into exhaustion are the hallmarks of Coach Tom Izzo’s team this year. They are talented, but what makes them special, and potential National Champions, is the leadership every member of the team displays. They play for each other, correct each other when needed, and play fundamental and team-first basketball. It will be a major upset if Michigan State fails to reach the Big Ten Tournament final. 

The next closest betting favorite is Maryland, at +350, a product of the team’s second place finish in the conference and the close game Michigan State won against the Terps on a last second half court shot, 58-55, on Feb. 26. Maryland has, perhaps, the most talented starting five in the conference. Derik Queen and Julian Reese are double-double machines in points and rebounds. Queen was named Big Ten Freshman of the Year, averaging 15.7 points (13th in the Big Ten) and 9.2 rebounds (3rd) on the season. Reese averaged 13.2 points and 9.3 rebounds on the season. As a team, the Terps lead the B1G in point differential, outscoring their opponents by an average of 14.9 points per game. Maryland has the ability to win the B1G Tournament, but its undoing could be bad shot selection and letting up big runs by opponents, a trend seen in too many games this season. 

Michigan has the seventh best odds to win the tournament, even though they are the three seed. That’s because Michigan has lost three straight, its last loss being a drubbing at Michigan State, 79-62. The five days between that beatdown and when they open their tournament schedule on Friday will have given Coach Dusty May time to figure out what went wrong down the stretch and how to fix it. Michigan is as talented as any team in the country with senior All-Big Ten First Team center Vlad Goldin and junior All-Big Ten Second Team forward Danny Wolf leading the team. Goldin is dominant inside, and Wolf has a potent inside-out game with three-point shooting, drives to the rim and posting up. Together, they average 29.6 points per game and 16.4 rebounds. Too often, however, the excellence of its big men can’t overcome the team’s turnovers. Michigan led the B1G in turnovers for the season, at 14.4, two full turnovers per game more than Penn State, a team that finished 17th out of 18 teams in the conference standings and failed to qualify for the B1G Tournament. If Coach May has fixed the turnover problem during the team’s time off, Michigan can win the tournament. If not, they could be bounced in their first game against a lower seeded opponent. 

But that brings up an interesting point. Every team in the tournament has a shot. The Big Ten is perhaps the deepest league in the country. Fourteen teams finished with winning records this season. Eight teams finished with 20 wins. Vegas agrees. There are six teams with odds at +750 or less, the most of any power conference in the country. 

Here is the full list of odds to win the Big Ten Tournament, according to FOX Sports, per DraftKings. 

Michigan State: +250 (bet $10 to win $35 total)
Maryland: +350 (bet $10 to win $45 total)
Wisconsin: +650 (bet $10 to win $75 total)
UCLA: +650 (bet $10 to win $75 total)
Purdue: +650 (bet $10 to win $75 total)
Illinois: +750 (bet $10 to win $85 total)
Michigan: +1200 (bet $10 to win $130 total)
Oregon: +2800 (bet $10 to win $290 total)
Indiana: +6000 (bet $10 to win $610 total)
Ohio State: +6500 (bet $10 to win $660 total)
Northwestern: +20000 (bet $10 to win $2,010 total)
USC: +25000 (bet $10 to win $2,510 total)
Iowa: +35000 (bet $10 to win $3,510 total)
Minnesota: +50000 (bet $10 to win $5,010 total)

Prediction time. 

Look for Michigan to win its opener against Rutgers, but lose to Maryland in the semifinal. Michigan State should take care of business Friday against Oregon, but will have its hands full on Saturday in the semifinal round against either UCLA or Wisconsin. 

I’m picking a rematch of Michigan State and Maryland, with the Terps getting revenge for the Tre Holloman buzzer beater on Feb. 26, sinking a late game bucket to take the lead and free throws to seal the victory, 60-55. 

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