Photo credit: Windy City Gridiron
Thanksgiving is on deck, and there is no doubt that Lions fans would be thankful if Detroit can end an eight-year long drought in their traditional holiday game.
The Lions haven’t won on Thanksgiving since 2016 when they beat a Minnesota Vikings team that was led by QB Sam Bradford. Former Lions CB, and now Philadelphia Eagle Darius Slay, picked off Bradford to set up the game winning field goal. The Lions improved to 7-4 and were leading the NFC North following the win.
Things are a little different this time around. Like 2016, they are leading the NFC North. But they have a legitimate opportunity to already clinch a postseason berth this week and have established themselves as Super Bowl frontrunners.
The Lions enter Thanksgiving with a 10-1 record and will battle the bottom feeders of the division. The Chicago Bears come to town with a 4-7 record. The Lions have lost three games against the Bears over this agonizing turkey day losing streak. Detroit will be pursuing redemption in this head to head match-up.
The Lions will also be getting their first look at Caleb Williams, the first overall pick in the 2024 draft. Although you would expect a 10-1 team that has one of the best defenses in football over the past couple of weeks to destroy a struggling 4-7 team that is on a four-game losing streak with a rookie QB, it’s not going to be an easy task for the Lions like some are anticipating. Detroit has some key players hurt, and those injuries came at the worst time with it being a short week.
Detroit Lions Injury Report:
https://twitter.com/Lions/status/1861876486078103697?s=19
As expected, no Carlton Davis or Taylor Decker for the Lions. Both dealing with knee injuries. Kalif Raymond is also out after being placed on IR. Maurice Alexander is expected to take over punt/kick return duties as he was added to the active roster along with LB David Long Jr.
Amon-Ra St. Brown and David Montgomery are both questionable.
Chicago Bears Injury Report:
The Chicago Bears are pretty healthy going into Thursday’s game. Defensive back Elijah Hicks and Offensive Lineman Ryan Bates are the only two players to appear on the injury report, and both have been ruled out for the game.
Detroit Lions Key Players vs. Chicago:
EDGE Za’Darius Smith:
I think it’s pretty obvious that Za’Darius Smith is the most important player for the Lions on Thursday. Detroit is facing adversity at middle linebacker and in the secondary with recent injuries to Alex Anzalone, Carlton Davis, and Terrion Arnold. That means the defensive line is going to need to get more pressure on the QB. The more time Caleb Williams has to use his weapons (D.J Moore, Rome Odunze, Keenan Allen) against either depth players, like Kindle Vildor and/or Khalil Dorsey, or banged up starters, like Arnold and/or Davis, the more danger the Lions defense finds themselves in.
Although the injuries could definitely give the Bears a very good opportunity on Thursday, this defense has been playing elite football and has been playing through injuries pretty much all season. They have an opportunity to shut the Bears offense down, but to do it, they will need a great performance from the veteran Smith.
TE Sam LaPorta:
Lions tight end Sam LaPorta has had a very underwhelming season after a record breaking rookie season in 2023. Some will call it a sophomore slump, but I think it’s mostly do to the fact that he has battled an ankle injury all season. In recent weeks, he has also had to fight through a pretty significant shoulder injury. LaPorta even missed the game against the Jags because of his shoulder.
As good as the Lions’ offense has been, they haven’t even reached their full potential yet. They can’t get there until Sam LaPorta starts getting back to being the player he was last year. With that said, it’s going to be important for him to have a good game. Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown is banged up with a knee injury he suffered on a punt return in Indy. It might be enough to slow St. Brown down, and it’s unclear if he’ll be limited on Thursday. LaPorta should have a bigger role if that is the case, and it doesn’t matter if Amon-Ra is healthy or not. If the game is close throughout the day LaPorta will have to be a reliable receiver for Goff. They were not on the same page against Indy, so this game against Chicago on a short week should give them an opportunity to get back on track.
WR Jameson Williams:
I think the Bears defense will be able to keep it close. If that is the case, Detroit will need an electric play from their electric playmaker to kickstart the offense. Williams could have an enhanced role this week with St. Brown’s injury. He’s getting targeted more and more, and his overall skillset is getting better. He had a nice game against the Jags a couple of weeks ago and had a couple of catches in Indy, but this game against Chicago could be one of his most productive ones with St. Brown and Kalif Raymond injured.
As far as key players for the Bears that Detroit will need to stop: Montez Sweat, the three-headed monster at WR, and an old friend, former round two pick of the Lions D’Andre Swift who could play a big role as a receiving threat in the backfield.
Detroit Lions Keys to the Game:
- Protecting Jared Goff
- Win the battle in the trenches
- Capitalizing on turnovers
The Lions have one of the best offensive lines in football, but when they have been without one of the starting five this season, they have struggled. You never want to be without one of your starting tackles, but the injury to Taylor Decker is very bad timing for multiple reasons. The obvious one is the fact that it’s a short week, but also because Chicago has a lot of upside on their defensive line. Montez Sweat is their X-Factor, and he’s going to attack Dan Skipper, who will be filling in for Decker. Brock Wright, the Lions best blocking tight end will have to assist the offensive line to keep Goff safe. If they are able to give Goff plenty of time even without Decker, it’s going to be a long day for Chicago.
Winning the battle in the trenches includes the offensive line, but I’m highlighting the defensive line here because i think they are going to have to be relentless. Chicago’s offensive line has not been very good for Williams this season. I expect Alim McNeil and Smith to be disruptive for the Lions. Josh Paschal has been getting better and has looked good in the last few games he’s played in. This could be the best game for the Lions’ pass rush since Aidan Hutchinson’s injury, and if they are able to get to Williams frequently, Chicago will have a tough time putting points on the board against a Detroit defense that has been playing very good.
Winning the turnover battle is an obvious key to the game. The Lions have gotten plenty of turnovers this season. So, rather than saying the Lions need to win the turnover battle, I’m saying they need to score on each opportunity they get when Chicago gives the ball away.
Predictions:
The Lions are -10.5 favorites, their moneyline is -520, and the over/under is 48.5. I think this game is going to be much closer than it looks on paper. Detroit struggled a bit offensively against Indianapolis, and I think that will continue against Chicago. I think the Bears defense keeps them in the game. Defensively for the Lions, I think they will be in good shape. The Lions gave up big plays in games where opposing teams didn’t leave much of a dent on the scoreboard, and I won’t be surprised if we see that again on Thanksgiving. Although I see the Bears having some explosive plays here and there, Aaron Glenn’s defense will once again limit them on points.
My final score prediction is Detroit Lions 20-Chicago Bears 13. Lions finally break the Thanksgiving curse at Ford Field.
MICHIGAN FOOTBALL NETWORK 
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