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This time last season, the Lions were cruising with a 12-1 record and atop the NFC. This year, they are 8-5 and are trying to figure out a way into the playoffs. Dan Campbell’s squad is sitting at a 55 percent chance to make it out of the regular season. With four games left, and several teams gunning for a spot in January, can the Lions pull it off? Let’s take a look.

There are several different ways that the Lions can make their way into the postseason. We’ll walk through each scenario.

4-0: Lions run the table.

If the Lions end up defeating every opponent left in their regular season slate, then we will definitely see them playing January football. This is not a cakewalk, as they are looking at playing the Rams, Steelers, Vikings, and Bears to close out the season. Doable, but difficult. Run the table and you’re in. As for the division, the Lions would have about a 50/50 shot if they won out as Green Bay would have to lose to two teams.

3-1: They drop one.

This seems to be the most reasonable outlook. Depending on who they lose to is key here.

Loss to the Rams: With the Lions headed to Los Angeles on Sunday to take on the betting favorite for MVP (Matthew Stafford) with an incredibly injured secondary, losing one then isn’t out of the question. This would have them at a 94% chance at the postseason, and a 14% chance to catch Green Bay for the division.

Loss to the Steelers: Even if the Lions upset the Rams, they will then have to face an old foe in Aaron Rodgers and the 7-6 Pittsburgh Steelers. This would be the best loss to take, as the Steelers are an AFC opponent. A loss to the black and yellow would have the Lions’ playoff odds at 97%, with the division at 13%.

Loss to the Vikings: Getting swept by the Minnesota Vikings is not ideal but still doesn’t hurt the Lions’ chances too much. They would have an 97% chance of making the playoffs, and about a 13-14% chance of snatching the division. Because the Vikings sit at 5-8, they don’t boast a threat to the Lions’ chances at the seventh seed.

Loss to the Bears: This is by far the most important game left on the slate. Even if the Lions upset the Rams, beat Rodgers, and put an end to McCarthyism, they must beat the Bears. If they don’t, their odds drop to a considerable 73% chance of getting in. This is because Chicago is also fighting for their playoff lives, and currently sit at the seventh seed in the NFC.

2-2: Split the rest of the season.

This is certainly a possibility for this banged-up Lions squad. If this happens, their chances of a division title are around 1% no matter the outcome.

Best Case Scenario: Lose to Rams, Steelers

If Detroit can only manage to beat their NFC North rivals, then their odds are a less-than-favorable 46%. This is because the Rams are outside the division and pose no threat to the lowest seed in the playoffs. Also, the Steelers are an AFC opponent, so they have the lowest impact among the remaining teams.

Worst Case Scenario: Lose to Vikings, Bears

Ho, boy. If the Lions fail to beat the Vikings or Bears, while winning against the Rams and Steelers, their playoff odds fall off a cliff at a 5% chance. With the Vikings giving the Lions fits earlier in the year, and the Bears getting it together late in the season, this is a possibility I do not want to consider.

1-3: Pack it up.

If the Lions only manage to beat one opponent the rest of the way, and end up 9-8, there is a ceiling of 3% and a floor of 1%. You would need several miracles to happen to this already unlucky team if they fall flat in three of their next four.

0-4: Mock Draft Time!

This one speaks for itself, but if the Lions do not win ANY games left on their schedule, then Goff and co. are looking at next season as a rebound year. I do not think Campbell will let this happen, but stranger things have occurred in the NFL.

What does this all mean?

In short, the Lions control their own playoff destiny. If they want in, they have to win. Simple as that. The NFC North is a tight race to the playoffs, and with the Seahawks and 49ers sitting nicely in the 5^th and 6^th seeds, it’s going to go down to the wire for who gets in at the 7^th seed.