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Myles Garrett has signed a record breaking deal to stay in Cleveland, but what does this mean for Detroit?

Obviously, it effects the pass rush market a ton, starting with Aidan Hutchinson, who is the next candidate for a huge payday. I personally don’t expect Hutch to ask for more than Myles, but I expect him to want more than Crosby, likely something in the $36 to $38 million per year range.

However, that’s not the only way the Lions will be affected. Trey Hendrickson is another top-tier pass rusher that was made available, and he is likely to be moved. Do the Lions really have a shot though? I think so, it has been reported that the Bengals are looking for a 2nd, or 3rd round pick in exchange for the All-Pro pass rusher. I think that is more than reasonable, and would make sense for Detroit. However, that is not all you’d be giving up if you made this trade, Hendrickson needs a new contract, and that number just went up after the Garrett deal. Trey will likely command anywhere between $30 and $38 million per year, which is a bit much, especially when you will have to pay Hutchinson a very comparable rate. I think between the draft compensation, and the contract demands, it is a bit too rich for the Lions taste.

There is another obvious way the Lions could improve their pass rush, and that’s through free agency. The big problem with this though, is that there are no real elite players available this time around. Let’s take a look at some possible candidates for Detroit.

Khalil Mack:

Obviously, Mack is the best one available, but he comes with his own issues. Mack, 34, is certainly not in his prime anymore, and isn’t getting any younger either. His price tag will be somewhat high, as he will command between $20 and $25 million, and could ask for a 2-year deal for insurance. If I’m Brad Holmes, I would offer a 1-year deal worth up to $23 million, say $14 to $16 million fully guaranteed due to injury, laced with incentives. Mack has 23 sacks over the last 2 seasons, with 17 of them coming in 2023, and PFF gave him an overall grade of 90.4 ranking 5th, a pass rush grade of 79.9 ranking 16th, and a run defense grade of 88.0 ranking 1st. Mack also had 49 total pressures last year, ranking 16th, Mack is not quite washed at this point. I’m not sure he would take the deal though, as there will likely be many teams interested. Obviously, if you sign Mack, you still draft an edge player relatively high. Mack is the best fit, as he is the best pass rusher on the open market, and if he signed a 1-year deal it gives us cap flexibility.

Harold Landry:

Landry, 28, is obviously much younger than Mack, but he is not quite the player Mack is currently. I like the idea of adding Landry, and the fact no one would trade for his $17.5 million salary, I think he will likely sign a deal worth less. Last season, PFF gave him an overall grade of 70.5, a pass rush grade of 49.6, and a run defense grade of 82.2, which ranked 7th. He had 9 sacks, and 30 total pressures last season, so decent, but not great numbers. I would likely offer him an incentive-laden 2-year deal worth $25 million total. He hasn’t really had a legit running mate alongside him, and that would be a relatively cheap deal for a guy who could be a double digits sack guy for us, and is just 28 years old. The money you’d save by signing Landry, could be used to add another player to the rotation.

Josh Sweat:

Obviously, Sweat is coming off of an amazing performance in the Super Bowl, where he had 2.5 sacks, leading the way to a Super Bowl win for the Eagles. The big game likely lead to a pretty big payday for Sweat, which I don’t see the Lions being in on. I wont spend too much time here, because I believe this is the least likely possibility. Sweat is a great player, but he will likely command between $22 to $28 million per year, which is just a little too much for us, especially with it likely being on a multi-year deal. Sweat likely priced himself out of Detroit after the way he played in New Orleans.

Dayo Odeyingbo:

Odeyingbo, 25, is likely going to be a surprise signing this free agency. I have heard a lot of rumors that he will have a pretty big market, but there is potential he could land in Detroit. He is more of a 3-4 end at 6’6″ 286 lbs, but I do believe he would fit pretty nicely here. However, there is a chance he is too pricey, as reports are he could get anywhere from $15 to $20 million per year on the open market. Coming off of a season where he had just 4 sacks, I think it would be hard to pay that price tag.

Chase Young:

Young is coming off a solid season for New Orleans, where he had 7 sacks, 47 hurries ranking 6th, and 66 total pressures ranking 7th, while playing a rotational role. Young was once a first overall pick, that never seemed to put it all together. He still hasn’t. but I think he clearly took a step last year. Having Hutch across from him would definitely help him, but he may be too expensive. Still just 25 years old, Young is set to command between $17 to $22 million per year, which is a bit high for Detroit. I would sign him to a 1 or 2-year deal worth up to $17 million, making it incentive-based. He will likely have a robust market though, so he probably wouldn’t take that deal.

Joey Bosa:

I won’t spend too much time here, as it has been reported Bosa is likely to head to San Francisco to join his brother. Bosa would’ve been a nice addition, but I’m not sure he fits the culture, and he has been an injury prone, non-productive player as of late. I probably would have passed on Bosa for the price anyways.

Demarcus Lawrence:

Lawrence, 32, is similar to Mack, but not quite as good. He had a decent season before the injury last year, having 3 sacks, 4 hurries and 9 pressures in just 4 games. Lawrence hasn’t been quite as good the past few years, but if he kept up that production, he would have had the best season he’s had in a while. If you could get Lawrence for $12 to $15 million on a 1-year deal, I think that would be worth it. Lawrence has pedigree you don’t normally find on the open market, and he hasn’t been paired with someone like Hutchinson in quite a while, if ever.

Von Miller:

Miller, 36, is in a very similar situation as Mack: older, productive player, who should have a decent market. Miller was recently cut by Buffalo, a move that saved them over $17 million. Miller is coming off a solid season where he had 6 sacks, 32 pressures, and 23 hurries in 13 games played. However, his PFF grades say he is still a pretty solid player, with a 82.4 overall grade, and a 83.0 pass rush grade ranking 11th. I would expect Von to sign a 1-year deal worth $12 to $15 million. With that deal, you could even sign another rotational guy. I think Detroit would make a ton of sense, as we have a need, and he could try for another Super Bowl.

Pass Rush By Committee:

This may be my favorite plan, as it saves money, and creates depth. If we can’t go after a Mack, I don’t think we should break the bank for one of the other options. Instead, we sign multiple players, for the price of one. I am a big fan of guys like Pat Jones, Harold Landry, Haason Reddick, Matt Judon, Charles Omenihu, Anthony Nelson, Celin Ferrell, K’Lavon Chaisson, Dennis Gardeck, Josh Uche, and many more. This to me, feels like the obvious option, especially if guys like Mack aren’t available or are too pricey. You don’t want to strap yourself to a guy for multiple years, for top dollar with where the Lions are currently. The Lions could realistically sign one of the guys I named throughout this article, and another solid player for the same price as Mack. Obviously, no matter what they decide in free agency, the Lions will need to draft a pass rusher very high.

SUMMARY:

The Lions have a few scenarios to choose from; trade a 2nd round pick for Trey Hendrickson and pay him $30 million-plus per season and draft one mid rounds, sign Mack at 1 year $23 to $25 million and draft one early, sign a Landry/Miller/Lawrence/Young for somewhere between $12-$18 million and draft one early, or sign a lower end guy while adding a few rotational guys, and drafting one 1st round. Either way, the Lions have some options to improve their pass rush, which is something they have needed to do for a while.

Brad Holmes has some difficult decisions to make this off-season, as it will be the first time the Lions are expected to be a Super Bowl contender. Detroit has a lot of money to shell out to their own stars, so it will be hard for Detroit to outbid anyone, so Holmes needs to be smart, and sign high potential players. If Holmes’ plays it right, the Lions could be set up very well to go for the Lombardi next season.

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