Photo Credit: Michigan State Basketball Facebook

The No. 8 Michigan State Men’s Basketball team, fresh off a convincing win over instate rival No. 15 Michigan, will visit No. 16 Maryland today in College Park, Maryland, at 6:30 p.m. This will be a showdown of two elite teams with lofty expectations for the postseason. Watch the game on FOX Sports.

The Spartans (22-5 overall, 13-3 Big Ten) lead the Big Ten Conference, but the Terps (21-6, 11-5) still have a chance of winning the Big Ten regular season title. Tonight’s matchup is pivotal. The Spartans will face a surging Maryland team, winners of four straight and eight of their last 10. Coach Tom Izzo’s team will also be facing a sold out, 17,950-seat Xfinity Center crowd. Look for tonight’s game to have the look and feel of an NCAA Tournament game. 

Michigan State has been solid lately, as well, winning three in a row and seven of its last 10. The key to Spartan success has been defense. The team holds opponents to an average of 67.2 points per game, second in the Big Ten. Maryland, however, is just as stingy, holding opponents to 67.3 points per game. 

The difference in this game may come down to Maryland’s high-powered offense and the home crowd advantage. The Terps average 83.7 points per game, tops in the Big Ten. Michigan State scores 79.0 points per game, seventh in the conference. 

Will the Spartans be able to force missed shots and grab the boards? Michigan State does out-rebound Maryland, on average. The Spartans haul in 39.6 boards per game, whereas; the Terps average 37.3 rebounds per game. 

The difference in this game could come down to a costly turnover. Michigan State owns the advantage in turnover differential. The Spartans average 1.48 assists per turnover on the season, fifth in the Big Ten. The Terps have a 1.43 assist to turnover ratio, eighth in the conference. 

Maryland may have the best starting lineup in the country, however, and run Michigan State out of the building. There are five Terps players ranked in the top 41 in Big Ten scoring, led by freshman phenom center Derik Queen. He averages a near double-double per game, at 15.9 points and 9.1 rebounds. 

By comparison, Michigan State has just one player ranked in the top 50 in scoring in the conference. Jaden Akins is 30th in scoring in the Big 10, at 13.0 points per game. 

This may be Michigan State’s toughest test of the season, but if any coach can devise a plan to win it’s Coach Izzo. He has proven to have the answers far more often than not, compiling 729 wins in his career to just 299 losses, a 70.9 percent winning percentage. He’s led his teams to the Final Four a staggering eight times, winning the NCAA National Championship in 2000. His teams have won 10 regular season Big Ten titles and six Big Ten Tournament titles. 

Maryland’s coach does not compare. This is Coach Kevin Willard’s third year at Maryland. He has 58 wins to 36 losses in that time, a 61.7 percent winning percentage. For his career, Willard is 322-245 (.568). In the NCAA Tournament, he is just 2-6. 

Both teams have a lot to play for. Both teams are fresh. Both teams have strong defenses. 

Michigan State is coming off an emotional victory against Michigan, and Coach Izzo won’t let there be a letdown. But Maryland has a talent advantage, and they have been nearly unbeatable at home this season (16-1). 

I expect a good game, but this round will go to the Terps. Their offense is too good to be denied. 

BetMGM sees this as a Maryland victory, with a 3.5 point spread and a total of 149.5 points scored. 

My guess:

Maryland 79 

Michigan State 75