Cover Photo Credit: Michigan University Athletics

It’s time. Two storied programs. Both teams ranked in the top 25. Much at stake. 

No. 12 Michigan Men’s Basketball hosts No. 14 Michigan State this Friday, Feb. 21, 8:30 p.m., in what should be a matchup of epic proportions. 

Michigan (20-5 overall, 12-2 Big Ten Conference) currently holds first place in the Big Ten standings, but Michigan State (21-5, 12-3) is only a half game back. 

The teams have met 193 times. Michigan holds the edge with 97 wins to 90 losses to Michigan State (some games were vacated). 

Michigan is undefeated at home this season, 12-0 at Crisler Center. The Wolverines have won six straight overall, and are 8-2 over their last 10. 

Michigan State is 5-2 on the road, looking for its third straight win and is 7-3 over its last 10. 

Who has the edge? 

Michigan has the more potent offense. The Wolverines score 81.6 points per game, ranking fifth in the Big Ten. Michigan State scores 79.1 points per game, ranking eighth in the conference. Michigan has five players in the top 58 of Big Ten scoring. Michigan State has two. 

On defense, statistically, Michigan State is the better team. The Spartans give up 67.4 points per game. The Wolverines give up 71.0. 

Michigan State is also the better team at rebounding, pulling down 39.8 boards per game. Michigan averages 38.3. 

The Spartans pass the ball better. They average 17.7 assists and 11.8 turnovers per game. The Wolverines average 16.7 assists and 14.4 turnovers. 

Fatigue could play a factor. Michigan has played five games in the month of February. Michigan State has played six, with just three days between its last game and its next. Michigan will have five days rest between games. 

All this adds up to a highly competitive, back and forth game that could be decided late. 

Will the Spartans have enough energy in the second half to keep up (or hold down) Michigan’s offense? Scoring can come from anywhere. 

Will the Wolverines limit their turnovers? During their six game winning streak, the Wolverines have improved on turnovers, averaging 12.7 per game, 1.7 fewer than their season average. 

The Big Ten Conference is strong this year, and even the lesser teams in the standings can win on any given night. This will be two powerhouse teams with regular season and tournament championship aspirations. 

If Michigan limits its turnovers, look for its size to dominate. Across the top six players on both teams by minutes played per game, the Wolverines hold a three-inch height advantage on average. The tallest player for Michigan State to play more than 20 minutes per game is 6’9”, whereas; Michigan has two seven-footers logging more than 25 minutes per game. 

I see a close game throughout, with the Spartans showing some fatigue in the final five minutes. The Wolverines have a clear home court advantage that will keep the team energized throughout. 

Michigan has won six straight, but their average margin of victory is just 3.16 points per game over that time. No win was by more than four points. 

Prediction: 

Michigan 75 

Michigan State 74 

The game will be televised on FOX Sports. Follow @MISportsMedia on X for in-game updates.