The Detroit Lions have now had back-to-back playoff berths, this time with the #1 seed in the entire NFC. The bye week is nice, but us fans are chomping at the bit to see our guys play. After this past weekend’s games, we now know the Washington Commanders will be heading to Ford Field on Saturday night, at 8:00PM EST.

The Commanders are coming off of a 12-5 season, their best finish since 1991. However, their last playoff berth was in 2020, when they won the NFC east with a 7-9 record. They lost in the wildcard game to Tom Brady’s Buccaneers 31-23, who went onto win the whole thing. Some may remember this as the Taylor Heinicke game. But I digress.

The Lions are coming off of their best regular season in franchise history, with a 15-2 record and capturing the NFC’s 1 seed for the first time ever. Oddly enough, the Lions have faced Washington multiple times in the playoffs before this, with Washington holding a 3-0 all-time record. The game that Lions fans will remember the most is the 1992 NFC Championship game. It was the year the Lions went 12-4, with Barry Sanders rushing for 1,855 yards from scrimmage along with 17 Touchdowns, while finishing 3rd in the MVP race at just 23. Their 12 wins were the most the Lions would have for the next 32 years, before hitting that mark again in the 2023-24 season. The Lions were having a great season in ’91, but it ended abruptly when the then Redskins put a whooping on them, winning that game 41-10. That was also the last time the Lions had a playoff win before ’23-’24. Will history repeat itself? I hope not. But that’s enough about the history, lets get into the injury report, and how the match-ups will affect this game.

INJURY REPORT:

As we see, both teams are relatively healthy coming in. The Lions will be without stalwart Right Guard Kevin Zeitler, which is easily the biggest blow to either team. Detroit also ruled out Defensive End Pat O’Connor, which could be another big loss for the Lions on the line of scrimmage. Ennis Rakestraw is questionable.

The Commanders are healthier, only down one player. They do have two others questionable, but they should be fine with or without.

MATCH-UPS:

LIONS RUN GAME VS COMMANDERS FRONT-7:

As we know, the Lions run game is elite. They rank 6th overall in rushing yards, 9th in rush yards per play, 5th in EPA per rush, 2nd in rushing touchdowns, 6th in runs of 10+ yards, 4th-fewest in run stuff %, 6th in yards before contact, 20th in yards after contact, 5th in total rush EPA, and 7th in rushing success rate. While the Commanders defense ranks 30th in rushing yards allowed, 28th in rush yards per play allowed, 28th in 10+ yard rushes allowed, 30th in rushing yards before contact allowed, 15th in run stuff rate, 5th in yards allowed after contact, and 27th in stacked box rate. This tells me that the Lions should be able to run the ball with relative ease. The Commanders are among the leagues worst in almost every defensive metric against the run. The only real positive is they get to the ball well, once they have contact they generally bring you down. That could be a big difference maker for Washington, as the Lions also do not gain much yardage after contact on average. Also, this would tell me that the Commanders do not do a great job of shedding their initial blocks to get to the ball carrier, which bodes well for our offensive line. With all of that being said, the Commanders have a good amount of talent in that front 7. Defensive tackles Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne are up there in terms of best defensive tackle duos in the NFL. Allen has been hurt all year, coming back week 10. Payne unfortunately was injured in the 3rd quarter of the game against Tampa Bay. However, they recently drafted defensive tackle Johnny Newton, who has played well in his own right. Defensive end Dorance Armstrong has had himself a solid year, with a 13.5% pressure rate, ranking 15th in the entire NFL. He also has 5 sacks, 39 tackles, and 46 pressures. He also ranks 3rd in “hustle stops” with 7 on the season. Washington has a solid linebacker room, led by 13-year veteran Bobby Wagner. He has had a pretty good year himself. Among linebackers he ranks 16th in tackles with 132 and 10th in stops with 74. Frankie Luvu and Dante Fowler have also played relatively well. Its hard to say why their defense has been so bad against the run this season. I would suspect it’s a mix of the injuries, play calls, and the mix of new players in the front 7. With all of that said, I genuinely expect the Lions to run the ball all over the field on Saturday night. I believe in this Offensive Line, and this Running Back room is incredible. However, I could see the Commanders defense showing up with the idea to stop the run at all costs. Hopefully the Lions continue to do what they’ve done all year on the ground.

LIONS DEFENSE VS JAYDEN DANIELS:

As we all know, the Lions defense has historically struggled against mobile Quarterbacks, and Jayden Daniels exemplifies that term. He set the record in rushing yards for a rookie QB, he is extremely dangerous with his feet. He ranks 2nd in rushing among Quarterbacks, only 24 yards behind Lamar Jackson and a whopping 261 yards ahead of Jalen Hurts who is 3rd. He also ranks 1st among QBs in rush EPA with 67 expected points added, and 1st in yards after contact. He averages 6 yards per carry, has 6 touchdowns, and is far and away in the lead for rushes of 15+ MPH, with 85. Lamar Jackson is 2nd with only 60. It’s safe to say his legs are going to cause Aaron Glenn some headaches. I expect the Lions to use Campbell and/or Anzalone to spy him all game. Like it or not, Jayden Daniels needs to be defended as if he is Lamar Jackson. Because essentially, he is. Luckily Washington doesn’t have Derrick Henry to add to the mix. I expect Jayden to have some success, it is unlikely we shut him down completely. I do believe that Glenn will have a solid game plan ready for him. If it were me, I’m spying him with my Mike, and containing with my ends. That keeps him in the pocket, and allows a player to be in the middle of the field if he decides to run. A cool wrinkle that could work: Spy 1 or both ends, and blitz the opposite side LB. Would force him towards the spy player, likely walking right into a tackle or sack. On top of that, he has been an upper echelon passer this season, so it will be very hard to totally stop him. The Lions need to get pressure early and hit him often. Make the rookie feel like a rookie. However, the Commanders likely have the leg up here. I think it will be very difficult for the Lions, and we will just have to try and limit him as much as possible.

LIONS DEFENSIVE BACKS VS COMMANDERS RECEIVERS

The Lions defensive backfield has been mostly very good this season. It started somewhat shaky, but they caught their stride about halfway through the year. Carlton Davis was lost for the season, but Arnold, Robertson, and the rest of the crew have done well in his absence. Statistically, the Commanders don’t have an elite passing game. They rank 17th in yards, 13th in yards per play, 9th in touchdowns, 6th in EPA, 26th in time to throw, 8th most sacks allowed, 7th worst sack rate allowed, 15th most pressures allowed, 9th in pressure rate allowed, 5th most blitz rate against, 6th in play action rate, 18th in total yards after catch, and 6th in target separation. The Lions defense is not amazing against the pass either, ranking 30th in passing yards allowed, 23rd in yards per play allowed, 31st in time to throw allowed, 23rd in sacks, 28th in sack rate, and 15th in yards after catch allowed. However, there are some statistics that will make Lions fans feel a bit better about this match-up. The Lions are 1st in separation allowed, 2nd in blitz rate, 11th in pressure rate, 4th in pressures, 4th in EPA allowed, and 2nd in passing touchdowns allowed. All while playing more man coverage than 90% of the NFL, and most of that being in press man. I expect the Commanders to have a decent game through the air. Much like Daniels’ legs, you wont be able to completely shut down his arm. It will be imperative to shut down Terry McLaurin, as well as limit Dyami Brown and Austin Ekeler out of the backfield. Luckily, the Commanders don’t have a huge plethora of weapons, so that makes the job a little easier.

LIONS FRONT-7 VS COMMANDERS RUN GAME:

Now, this is going to make a huge difference in this game. The Commanders run the ball often, and run it well. They rank 3rd in rush yards per game, 4th in rush yards per play, 1st in EPA per rush, 4th in rush Touchdowns, 7th in rushes of 10+ yards, 12th in run stuffed rate, 1st in rush success rate, 7th in rush yards over expected, and 4th in rush yards before contact. They are an ELITE rushing team. Obviously, it helps that Jayden Daniels is one of the best rushing Quarterbacks in the entire NFL, but it should give you pause. This game is 2 elite running teams going head to head. The Commanders backfield consists of bruising back Brian Robinson and gadget player Austin Ekeler, the perfect pairing. Brian is their Monty, and Ekeler is their Gibbs, for lack of a better comparison. It will be up to the 5th ranked rush defense to stop them. The Lions also rank 1st in yards allowed after contact, which bodes well, but that’s where the positivity train stops. The Lions rush defense has been underwhelming with all of the injuries. They currently rank 22nd in yards per play allowed, 17th in EPA per rush allowed, 32nd in yards allowed before contact, and 11th in rushing touchdowns allowed. Whoof. This will be the game changer. Whoever’s run game dominates, likely wins the game. Glenn will have to make sure to load the box, but not too much. This is going to be a tough match-up for Detroit, but that’s what the playoffs are all about.

LIONS RECEIVERS VS COMMANDERS DEFENSIVE BACKS:

The Lions have a plethora of weapons; Amon-Ra, Jameson Williams, Sam Lapota, Jahmyr Gibbs, Tim Patrick, and more. However, Washington’s defense is no slouch either. Their pass defense is 3rd in yards allowed, 10th in yards per play allowed, 16th in touchdowns allowed, 11th in time to throw, 12th in sacks, 6th in sack rate, 26th in pressures, 17th in pressure rate, 6th in blitz rate, 1st in yards after catch allowed, and 3rd in separation allowed. They are in that top tier of overall passing defenses in the NFL, and that should worry you. The Lions offense is predicated on the run, but the pass game has been where they really turn the game on its head. The Lions passing offense ranks 2nd in yards, 2nd in yards per play, 4th in touchdowns, 2nd in EPA per play, 20th in time to throw, 10th in sacks allowed, 23rd in sack rate, 18th in pressures allowed, 18th in pressure rate, 17th in blitzed rate, 1st in play action rate, 1st in yards after catch, and 5th in average yards of separation. Safe to say, this will be a tough match-up for both sides. I feel confident that Ben, Dan, and the rest of the offensive staff will have a good scheme ready to go. I also believe the Lions weapons have the advantage here. Really, I am worried about Goff and the Offensive Line a bit. It has shown this season, that the Lions pass blocking hasn’t necessarily been the elite unit it was last year. As long as Goff stays upright, and doesn’t turn it over, I think the Lions have the advantage here.

FORD FIELD FANS VS COMMANDERS HUDDLE:

The Lions have the best fans in the world. Ford Field is known as a rough place to play. Playoff Ford Field needs to be THE hardest place to play. This is where you come in. If you are lucky(rich) enough to be at the game Saturday, you better be LOUD. This game is going to be tough, and you guys have a chance to make a real difference. Be loud, be proud, but be respectful. We need you guys to show up and show out. I wish I could be there, but it’s not in the cards (bank account) for me.

REVIEW & PREDICTION:

I expect the Lions to handle business. I do not think it will be easy. I expect the Commanders to get theirs offensively, and their defense will be stout in all factions of the game. I think the Lions having Glenn and Johnson will really be the difference maker here. They will make a good game plan, and attack Washington’s weaknesses well.

Lions 31

Commanders 27

Get your jerseys and your popcorn ready. We are going to see a movie in Motown come Saturday night.