This Sunday the Lions will travel to Chicago to take on the Bears for the second time this season. The first game was a Thanksgiving doozy, the Lions got after it early, taking a 16-0 lead at halftime. However, the Bears wouldn’t go down without a fight. Caleb Williams came out hot, scoring 20 points in the second half, with 14 of them coming in the 4th. Caleb found a rhythm, and was able to bring the Bears back to life. Keenan Allen and DJ Moore each caught a touchdown, as the Bears brought it close. However, the Lions wouldn’t go away quietly, and won the game on a third down touchdown pass to Sam Laporta at the end of the third quarter. The Bears ultimately fumbled the final drive, as they failed to take their last timeout in the last 30 seconds. Time ran out as they snapped it, down 3 points, at midfield. It was an all time blunder that led to the firing of Matt Eberflus.

INJURY REPORT:

The Lions will be without David Montgomery and Jalen Reeves-Maybin. With Branch, Glasgow, and Iffy all questionable. Glasgow has had an up and down season so far, so it might be a good idea to sit him this week and let Mahogany get the start. Branch and Iffy being out would be rough, leaving the Lions even thinner at Defensive Back. It does sound like Branch and Glasgow will likely play, Iffy has a solid chance as well.

The Bears will be without Lineman Ryan Bates. Johnson, Jenkins, Jones, and Dexter are all questionable. It sounds like there is a high chance all of them will play. Homer is doubtful and will likely sit this one out.

OVERVIEW:

Now, the Bears have a new Head Coach, and are doing things a little differently. I’m not so sure it’s better, though. They have only scored 12 and 13 points in their last two games. Caleb hasn’t looked great in those two games either. He hasn’t been terrible either, with a Quarterback rating of 116.9 vs Minnesota and an 86.9 vs San Francisco. He has not thrown an interception in 8 straight games, which is something the Lions defense relies on. On a positive note, their defense has allowed at least 30 points the past two games as well. The Bears defense has been below average this season, ranking 24th in yards allowed, 11th in touchdowns allowed, 18th in pass yards allowed, and 7th in rushing yards allowed on the season. There are some match-ups the Lions can take advantage of, but we will get to that later.

The Lions, as we all know, are facing an all time injury bug. They lead the league with 22 total players on IR, PUP, or OUT. With most of them being high quality starters. We really need the defense to step it up the next few weeks, as we get a few guys back for the playoffs. The Lions defense has relied on turnovers all year, and Caleb hasn’t been giving them. The Lions defense ranks 14th in yards allowed, 24th in yards per play allowed, 26th in pass yards per game allowed, 18th in yards per pass play allowed, 21st in yards per play allowed, 20th in pressure rate, and 29th in time to throw on the season. Which may come as a surprise, as the Lions defense has been a solid unit this season. But, that’s likely due to the fact that they rank 4th in interceptions, and 6th in rushing yards allowed this year. Meaning that they stop the run well, and get a lot of turnovers when the other team throws it, a recipe for success. However, I don’t believe that we can rely on interceptions consistently.

The Bears offense has not been very good overall, ranking 32nd in total yards, 32nd in yards per play, 21st in Touchdowns, 31st in passing yards, 25th in points, 22nd in rushing yards, 9th in time to throw, 27th in pressures allowed, and 25th in pressure rate allowed on the season.

As we all know, the Lions offense has been elite this season, ranking 2nd in total yards, 4th in yards per play, 1st in touchdowns, 1st in points, 2nd in passing yards, 3rd in yards per play, 6th in rushing yards, and 9th in rushing yards per play. However, they also rank 15th in pressures allowed, 18th in time to throw, and 17th in pressure rate allowed this year.

Now, lets talk about how this will affect the game on Sunday.

As it stands, statistically and record wise, the Lions should roll the Bears. However, this is an NFC North match-up, and those can go either way. As we saw the last time these two teams faced off. On top of that, the Lions are down so many key defenders that they have multiple guys starting who were not even on a roster at the start of the year. The Bears could be the perfect team for them to play coming off the tough loss to Buffalo. As I said before, the Bears are not very good statistically, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. They have been up and down all year, beating teams like the Rams, and then losing by double digits to the Patriots. They are 4-10, with 6 of the losses being within one score, but 4 losses also being a minimum of 15 points. 2 of their wins were by 19+, against the Panthers and Jaguars, but 2 of their wins were also within one score. You never really know what you’re getting out of Chicago. The Lions are almost the opposite, consistently beating teams, and it’s usually not close. They have had their fair share of close games this year though. With that said, lets get into match-ups and how they most the outcome.

KEY MATCH-UPS:

Lions Defensive Backs vs Bears Weapons:

The Lions defense is banged up as we know. However, I think the defense could still make a huge impact in the game, for the better. The Lions have their work cut out for them though, as the Bears offense features DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, D’Andre Swift, and Cole Kmet. The defensive backs will have a tough day, again. Last game we saw Keenan Allen have 5 catches, 73 yards, and 2 touchdowns and DJ Moore went for 8 catches, 97 yards, and 1 touchdown. D’Andre Swift was relatively shut down, only having 39 rushing yards and 35 receiving. Cole Kmet and Rome Odunze also didn’t have great games, combining for catches for 51 yards total. However, the Lions lost Carlton Davis and Khalil Dorsey since their last match-up, meaning they will be very thin at corner. On the bright side, the Lions have 2 of the best safeties in the NFL, and have built some depth at Defensive Back. They will also get Iffy Melifonwu back on Sunday, which should help. The Lions usually play more man coverage than anyone else, but they may switch that up with all of the injuries. Bottom line; the Lions DB’s need to be on point if they want to win.

Lions Offensive Line vs Bears Defensive Line:

The Lions offensive line is an elite unit, but has surprisingly had some lows this season. Ranking 18th in time to throw, 15th in pressures allowed, 16th in pressure rate allowed, 9th in sacks allowed, while also ranking 21st in blitz %. This means that pass rushers are getting pressure at a high rate, while also not blitzing very often, so linemen are losing 1-on-1 battles. Also, the run game has been suffering as of late, with only 48 yards last week, and their yards per carry has steadily declined. My assumption is this is a mix of play calling, match-ups, and where the game is at. For instance, the Bills were consistently up by two scores, meaning the Lions didn’t want to run the ball as much to save clock. On top of that, Montgomery is out, likely hurting that number even more. The Bears also have a solid defensive line with Montez Sweat and Gervon Dexter. The Lions realistically should win this match-up in a landslide though.

Bears Defensive Backs vs Lions Wide Receivers:

The Bears defense ranks 18th in passing yards allowed, 30th in passing yards per play allowed, 15th in pressures, 25th in time to pressure, and 23rd in average target separation allowed. The Lions offense and receivers should be salivating at these numbers. Jaylon Johnson heads a group of defensive backs that realistically play better than these numbers though. Kyler Gordon and Tyrique Stevenson are both solid corners as well. They have veteran safety Kevin Byard in the back-end. The Lions won’t have a cakewalk, but I expect Ben Johnson to scheme well and get these guys open.

Lions Linebackers vs Bears Offense:

The Lions Linebacker room is easily the most hurt by all of the injuries. They will likely start 2 players this week who were not on the roster week one. The Bears have a plethora of weapons as well, lead by DJ Moore and Keenan Allen. They also have young studs Rome Odunze and Cole Kmet, with D’Andre Swift in the backfield. The Linebackers will have their work cut out for them, especially due to the amount of man coverage Aaron Glenn likes to use. Linebackers have more to do on defense than anyone, being the main run stuffer’s as well as covering the middle of the field. I could see the Lions Linebackers being a big turning point for the defense. If they play well, the rest of the defense should as well.

Lions Coaches vs Bears Coaches:

The blunder heard round the world. The last time these two teams played, it ended in one team relieving their Head Coach of his duties due to terrible clock management at the end of the game. The Lions coaches have been around. This is the 4th season for Campbell and his coordinators, and the rest of the staff has been around for a decent amount of time as well. The Bears are on the opposite side of the spectrum, they hired a new Offensive Coordinator, who then became their Interim Head Coach. It is safe to say it hasn’t gone that well, only scoring 12 and 13 points in his first two games respectively. I expect the Lions coaches to control this game, and ultimately lead the Lions to a much needed win.

Go Lions. #OnePride.