Goff threw 5 TDs in Sunday’s loss to the Bills.  

Even after the loss, the Lions control their own playoff destiny. 

After the Sunday afternoon loss to the Bills, and the overwhelming number of injuries to key starters, it seems the football gods have not been kind to the Detroit Lions. Every team that needed to lose on Sunday won, which has tightened up not only the race for the NFC North, but also the number one seed in the NFC. It can be easy to feel hopeless, but we have to remember they have only lost twice and both were one score affairs. The sky is not falling, Chicken Little.  

With that in the rearview mirror, the Lions look to get back on track against a Bears team that looks totally lost on the field under new head coach Thomas Brown. Should the Lions beat them this Sunday, it puts them on track to control their own playoff destiny heading into the postseason.  

Last week, we broke down the odds that the Lions would run away with both the NFC North and the top seed in the conference. With the loss on Sunday, and the Eagles and Vikings both getting wins, the race for both has gotten much tighter. However, I did say that the magic number was three. Of those games we looked at, Buffalo was the least important one to win. The Lions are still in the driver’s seat, ladies and gentleman.  

Win out, the top seed and the division are both ours. 

If the Lions can beat the Bears, the Niners, and the Vikings to close out the season, then they’ll have secured a second straight NFC North title and a franchise-first #1 seed in the NFC. With the Bears and Niners looking worse than when we last saw them, and having beat the Vikings in the last matchup, I have the utmost confidence in this team to secure three much needed wins.  

What if they drop a game? 

Going 2-1 down the stretch would put the chances at a #1 seed and the division in the hands of fate, which has not been kind to the Lions this season when it comes to their competitors losing games. The Eagles and Vikings are both breathing down the Lions neck in the standings with every team sitting at 12-2.   

The Lions can afford to drop a game to the Vikings if they lose a game along the way too. If Minnesota wins out, however, we can kiss that division goodbye as they would finish 15-2 to the Lions’ 14-3.  This is not an ideal situation.  

If the Lions lose to the Bears or Niners, but beat the Vikings, they would still secure the NFC North and a probable #2 seed.  

Any loss puts their odds at a #1 seed berth at 76% (loss to CHI) to a low of 63% (loss to Vikings) 

What if they can only win one game down the stretch? 

Then they would need a LOT of help from other teams.  

If they only beat the Vikings, they would need them to lose at least two games in order to secure the division. The #1 seed odds are at a measly 26%, meaning that the Eagles would have it secured if they win their remaining games (WAS, DAL, NYG).  

Odds go down to 11% for the #1 seed and 41% for the division if they only beat either the Bears or Niners.  

What if the defense can’t stop anyone, the offense scores no points, and we lose every game? 

Then we are more than likely looking at Detroit going on the road in the playoffs.  

The sky is not falling.

After that loss to the Bills, everyone seems to be writing the Lions off and crowning either the Eagles or Vikings as the NFC representatives in the Super Bowl. Personally, I think that the Lions are going to be just fine. They made it to the NFC Championship and lost by one score with a great offense and abysmal defense just last season. They will not be playing Josh Allen every week, who is the clear-cut league MVP. I think that they will win out and prove any doubters wrong.  

This season is still alive, and Dan Campbell’s boys are more than up for the challenge.